The 96th Academy Awards are on Sunday and like every year, I have my predictions. This year, it’s the rare year where the favorite to win the big prize happens to be the one I liked the most last year. I have my guesses for 23 categories split up into categories this year based on my confidence.

---

The Oppenheimer train is reaching the station and it should be a big night for the Oppenhomies. I think it has 6 awards all wrapped up, including RDJ winning , as well as it running through the technical awards. Nolan and Göransson have dominated their categories this season, and it should finally be Nolan’s time in the spotlight. Finally, Randolph has yet to lose at any awards show this season. she will finish the season sweep.

For this group, I am just about in slam dunk territory, but these are written in pencil rather than ink. What if Oppenheimer somehow upsets Interest for Sound? What if Spidey upsets Miyazaki? Barbie should win Costume and Production, but Killers of the Flower Moon is lurking. Possibly too the Academy just feels “I’m Just Ken” more than Eilish’s moody Barbie song which keep picking up wins.

Now we get a little less sure. Makeup really could go to Poor Things or Society of the Snow, but the Academy in the past has rewarded the biopics that involve a transformation. The Creator is overlooked by many people, but in my world, it wins Visual Effects hands down. Just watch it go to Napoleon to really annoy me. I wouldn’t be mad though if Toho got it for their excellent Godzilla film.

I called this trio the Waffles because I have switched the guess on all of them back and forth many times. Actor is down to either Murphy or Giamatti, and more closely, Actress is either Stone or Gladstone. Up until Friday, I had Stone as my pick. And the viper pit that is Adapted is one I’ve moved from Barbie, Fiction, and Oppenheimer. I’ll take Oppenheimer and guess it wins 8 awards.

These are always the shot in the dark categories. Usually word of mouth is my direction as there is normally one short that really has legs.

---

So, on Sunday I try to beat my previous high of 18/23 from 2021. Also, after watching Dune: Part 2 recently, I’m partly glad it got pushed back so I didn’t have to pick between that and Oppenheimer on the below the line awards. It will have its turn to dominate next March.