It hasn’t been a secret that the box office has been lackluster so far this year. What has been a little surprising however has only been one movie (Inside Out 2 last week) that has had a $100 million opening weekend. We are at the 24th week of the year, and here is what thing have looked like so far.

Not only have we gotten just one movie so open at $100 million, only two other movies have got past $80 million. At this time last year, there was already 3 movies. Looking at the schedule for the rest of the year, there aren’t a lot of great options to get to the century mark opening weekend. There are three options though that could reach that point. Let’s discuss them from probably likely to being a lock.

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3rd Best Option

Moana has been a big movie for the House of Mouse since really it hit home release. Theatrically, it didn’t do a lot of damage. It made more than another favorite, Encanto, but that one has COVID as an excuse and it went straight to Disney+ when it went to theaters. The comparison to really look at here is Frozen. The original made a good number, and it only grew into a bigger monster when it made to to homes. Then, the sequel tapped into that mania and almost doubled the opening weekend. I’m not saying Moana is as popular as Frozen, but it certainly is popular enough to get th big push of a sequel. So why is this 3rd? It’s because of what opens on the same day of Moana 2: Wicked Part 1. That movie could very well do poorly, but it should make enough business to limit Moana’s opening take. I don’t think we are looking at Barbenheimer 2 here. Just two studios that want the thanksgiving weekend, and refusing to flinch.

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2nd Best Option

There are a couple reasons why this a pretty great option. The first is its history. We have had 5 movies in the series now, counting the Minions entries. Three of them have been released the same weekend as this newest movie: 4th of July weekend. Also, two have passed $100 million in its first weekend. So there is precedent here. Some thing else in its favor is the box office landscape at that point. DM4 is released on July 3rd, and the only other new film that week is Beverly Hills Cop: Axel F on Netflix. So, it is the only new show in town at theaters. Not just that, but the options already there that could hurt it should be running out of steam by then. Inside Out 2 will be in its 4th week, and Garfield will be in its 7th. One last thing. Inside Out 2’s monster opening proves there is money for a good animated sequel. While non of the Despicable Me entries got to $100 million, both Minions movies did. So Illumination is probably hoping kids see the yellow menaces more than Gru in the commercials.

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Best Option

This is so much of a sure thing, that if it doesn’t reach that point, it will be a problem that brings us back to the “box office is doomed” level some had us in in May. Both Deadpool entries made over $125 million, so the money is there. The key here is the same for every movie now: It has to be good. If it is, word of mouth from the Thursday showings should carry it through not unlike what happened with Inside Out 2. Add in the addition of Wolverine, and we are building into something that could be special. The MCU could really use a win here, and this seems like the easy button to have a hit. The profits they make on this should help the issues they could have next year with their 4(!) movies on the schedule.

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While I have those three as the best options, there are other possibilities. Maybe Wicked is the one people pick on Thanksgiving, and I really wanted to put Beetlejuice Beetlejuice as an option, but that is 30 year old sequel. I just don’t see it. The studios sure hope I am wrong about only 4 movies hitting $100 million this year though.