Watching Red One last week, I was reminding of something that has bugged me for awhile. This is something most people will think is nit picky, but we all have our soapboxes to yell at our fellow commoners about a wrong that must be righted (in our view at least). That soapbox for me right now is that Christmas movies are not released in the right section of the year. I can sense your eyes rolling as you read that, but stay with me on this for a few minutes as I try to make my case.

Before I get into the main case studies, first we need to discuss the parameters of whatever you want to call this (like a waste of time perhaps). In my world, as well as many others, the Holiday Season in earnest is Thanksgiving to Christmas. Yes, that “season” starts at Halloween or early November for some. Having Christmas songs on the radio for the last two weeks already is evidence of that. However, the build up to Thanksgiving is a different monster than the build up to Christmas. That section is what I’m talking about here.

What is happening now and for many years is that films set around Christmas are seemingly released in early November, well out of the part of the year the movies are made for. This is weird to me at first, but as I looked into this further, a pattern emerged that I just don’t understand. Last weekend, Red One was released to the masses. The film is set on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, and deals with Santa being kidnapped. Generally a film that you would think would play great (if it was good at least) somewhere in the December 7th to 20th range. Put the film in theaters while people are really in that spirit. It’s not like the options this year in that stretch are doing that. We are getting dramas, horrors, comic book entries, and adult comedies. Not a lot for the season until Sonic 3 hits on Christmas and claims the kid audience from Moana.

Releasing on 11/15 causes a couple of issues. First, within three weeks, the film will barely be in people’s minds. It already isn’t getting great reviews, and the next couple weeks with Gladiator, Wicked, and Moana on the horizon are going to make things difficult. That then leaves one wondering when the film will be on streaming. Amazon MGM seems to have a pattern of waiting 5 months to place films on Prime, so that means a April/May 2025 target. Not ideal. However, it might hit VOD right around Christmas, so you can still watch it at home, just probably for more that seeing it at the theaters. Looking at all of this, the next logical step is to see what happened in previous years.

The last two years have had films released in this general time of year, but that they had a key advantage that Red One was also supposed to have. In 2022, Apple released Spirited on 11/11 on Apple TV+, and in 2023, Amazon released Candy Cane Lane on Prime on 12/1. Both of those are either early or barely in the sweet spot, but since they are streaming from the start, there is nothing to stop them other that the public not choosing them. They also can be watched more than once if one wants to (I will defend Spirited to anyone that comes for it). Red One was originally supposed to be Prime’s 12/20 release last year. Right where I above said it should have been. However, the strike claimed the film as a hostage and Amazon decided to push it back to where it is now. There was also reportedly behind the scenes issues, but I’ll stay with the strike as the reason as this post is getting long. Why did Amazon pick the middle of November as the new date though? Looking further back in time reveals the pattern.

Twenty years ago, The Polar Express was released. This film grew to be a staple for many people as part of their Christmas time. What was surprising to me was that it was released on November 10th. Way out of the target area I discussed above. This was also in an era where you couldn’t watch films at home until months after they were in theaters. It also released a week after Pizer released The Incredibles. While it didn’t get glowing reviews, it did manage to bring in $189.5 million, but couldn’t you imagine it playing better a few weeks later that year? The only real competition for family movies in the Thanksgiving to Christmas window was A series of Unfortunate Events and the first SpongeBob Movie. A year before all this was Elf, released on November 7, 2003. It’s possible comp in the holiday window was The Haunted Mansion, Beethovan’s 5th, and Cheaper by the Dozen. Instead, it opened against The Matrix Revolutions, and in some markets Brother Bear. It made $178 million at the end of it’s run in the US.

I’ll go back further in time one last time just to hammer my point home. 30 years ago, The Santa Clause was released on November 11th. To make things a little more interesting, the remake of Miracle on 34th Street came out the following week. Both outside my window. As a child of the 90s, I can attest the competition both would have faced in the window is pretty tough though. The Thanksgiving film was The Pagemaster. That Macaulay Culkin movie was my jam for a bit. Then the Christmas movie that year was Richie Rich, and that was even bigger for me. However, looking back knowing what we know now, was Disney just late in dating The Santa Clause, or is there just something special about that early November release date? Going back just 30 years, it is clear that date still is the magic date studios think it is, even if movies that weekend don’t make the money really a Thanksgiving or Christmas release get. This year being a bad example as Red One was never going to out gross Moana 2, but it would be interesting to see if Red One could have brought in more than $34 million in it’s opening weekend if it was closer to when the movie itself is set. As of now, in 2025, there isn’t a holiday themed movie in that early November timeslot, so my whining will take a year off.